Ethereum remained above $2,700 on Oct. 1 after a wallet linked to Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin transferred 133,298 ETH to a new address. The transaction, valued at approximately $356.2 million at the time, drew attention because of its size and the possibility that the tokens could eventually create additional selling pressure.
Onchain tracker Lookonchain reported that the transfer occurred roughly five hours before its alert. Importantly, the receiving address was not identified as a known centralized exchange. There is therefore no evidence so far that the 133,298 ETH was transferred for an immediate sale.
That distinction matters for Ethereum’s near-term outlook. Sending tokens to an exchange can increase the amount of ETH immediately available for trading, whereas transferring assets between private wallets does not necessarily have the same market effect. The receiving address nevertheless remains important because a later transfer to centralized exchanges could change the implications.
ETH showed little immediate reaction to the movement. It traded around $2,715 at press time and continued to hold above the $2,700 area, which has repeatedly served as an important short-term battleground during the latest recovery.
Ethereum remains below the $2,800 resistance area
The current price structure follows an earlier rejection around $2,800. Ethereum fell below $2,700 after its Sept. 23 attempt to extend the recovery failed. During that move, ETH reached an intraday high near $2,789 before falling as low as $2,648.
That reversal left the $2,800 region as an important obstacle for buyers. Ethereum has subsequently recovered above $2,700, but it has not yet established the sustained move needed to clear that resistance.
The latest resilience also comes as institutional demand through U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds has started to cool after a strong sequence of inflows.
Those funds attracted nearly $690 million over five consecutive sessions through Sept. 25. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $326.2 million of the weekly inflows, while Fidelity’s FETH attracted another $174.1 million.
ETF demand provided a source of buying while Ethereum attempted to recover, helping offset some uncertainty surrounding ETH’s inability to maintain prices above $2,800. Previous analysis identified the $2,781 to $2,800 area as the immediate upside test, with $3,000 potentially becoming relevant if buyers established a sustained breakout.
Staking continues to absorb part of Ethereum’s supply
Staking activity has provided another source of supply absorption. Approximately 43.5 million ETH was staked as of Sept. 28, representing about 35.66% of the total supply.
At the same time, roughly 1.61 million ETH was waiting to enter staking, compared with approximately 161,000 ETH waiting to exit. When Ethereum’s staking activity was examined, the validator entry queue was therefore nearly ten times larger than the exit queue.
ETH committed to staking is removed from immediately liquid supply while it remains committed to the network. That dynamic provides context for Ethereum’s available supply, although staking demand by itself does not determine where the token’s price will move next.
The large transfer associated with the Lubin-linked wallet therefore arrives against a backdrop in which a substantial quantity of ETH remains staked and the entry queue considerably exceeds the amount waiting to leave.
Neither factor establishes the intent behind the 133,298 ETH transfer. For now, the transaction remains a movement to a new address rather than a confirmed transfer to an exchange.
Directional indicators continue to favor Ethereum buyers
Ethereum’s daily technical structure remains constructive despite the uncertainty surrounding the wallet movement. The Directional Movement Index continues to show a meaningful advantage for buyers.
The positive directional indicator stands at 29.17, substantially above the negative directional indicator at 14.70. This gap indicates that positive directional pressure currently remains stronger than negative pressure.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, is at 39.67. That remains above the 25 level commonly used to identify a meaningful directional trend. Together, the readings show that buyers retain the directional advantage and that the prevailing trend continues to have meaningful strength.
There is, however, an important qualification. ADX has fallen from its September peak. The decline does not indicate that the directional advantage has already reversed, but it suggests that the existing trend is losing strength rather than accelerating.
That combination leaves Ethereum with a constructive daily setup while also showing why further confirmation would be necessary before treating another move higher as an established breakout.
Chaikin Money Flow remains in positive territory
Capital-flow data provides another positive signal for Ethereum. The 20-day Chaikin Money Flow currently stands at 0.10 after recovering into positive territory following a brief decline below zero during September.
A positive CMF reading indicates that buying pressure remains stronger on a volume-weighted basis. The indicator is particularly relevant following the large wallet transfer because it does not currently show sustained distribution accompanying the movement of 133,298 ETH.
That does not establish what the receiving wallet will do with the tokens. It instead shows that Ethereum’s broader capital-flow indicator has not yet registered the type of persistent selling pressure that could accompany significant distribution.
Combined with the DMI readings, the CMF keeps the daily technical picture constructive. Buyers maintain the directional advantage, capital flows remain positive, and ETH continues to trade above $2,700.
The weakening ADX nevertheless means that the strength of the existing trend should be separated from its direction. Buyers remain ahead, but the trend has not been strengthening at the same pace seen around its September peak.
The four-hour chart puts $2,749 in focus
Ethereum’s four-hour chart provides more precise levels for evaluating the next short-term move. ETH is currently trading inside its 20-period Donchian Channel rather than above its upper boundary.
The upper boundary stands at $2,748.60, while the midpoint is positioned at $2,692.15. The lower boundary sits at $2,635.69. With ETH around $2,715, the price is trading in the upper half of this range.
That position is constructive, but it does not constitute a confirmed breakout. Ethereum would still need to move above the upper Donchian boundary to strengthen the immediate bullish setup.
Short-term momentum is also positive but relatively modest. The nine-period Rate of Change stands at 0.94, placing momentum above zero without showing the stronger acceleration that would provide clearer confirmation.
A four-hour close above approximately $2,749, accompanied by an expansion in ROC, could shift attention back toward the recent resistance around $2,800. Until that happens, ETH remains inside the channel and below a level that has repeatedly limited its recovery.
A sustained $2,800 breakout could expose higher levels
The $2,800 region remains especially important because Ethereum has already struggled around it several times. The previous rejection from near that area pushed the token down to approximately $2,648 before buyers regained control.
If ETH first clears approximately $2,749 and then establishes a sustained break above $2,800, the next level identified in the current setup would be $2,900.
Beyond that, the psychological $3,000 level would return to focus. Previous Ethereum price analysis has already identified $3,000 as an important potential target if buyers can establish a sustained breakout through the resistance currently limiting the recovery.
Those higher levels remain conditional rather than confirmed targets. Ethereum must first overcome the immediate Donchian boundary and then successfully break the broader $2,800 resistance region.
The current ROC reading of 0.94 shows positive momentum, but its modest level means that stronger acceleration would provide more convincing confirmation than price movement alone.
$2,692 and $2,636 define the immediate downside levels
Failure to break above the upper Donchian boundary would leave $2,692, the channel midpoint, as the first support level to monitor.
The more important short-term floor is around $2,636, close to the lower Donchian boundary at $2,635.69. This area is also near the levels defended by buyers after Ethereum’s Sept. 23 rejection, when ETH fell from almost $2,800 to approximately $2,648.
A break below $2,636 accompanied by the Rate of Change moving further into negative territory would weaken the short-term structure.
Additional confirmation of deterioration would appear if the daily Chaikin Money Flow fell below zero and the negative directional indicator began narrowing its current gap with the positive directional indicator.
Those conditions are not present in the current setup. CMF remains positive at 0.10, +DI remains well above -DI, and ETH continues to trade in the upper half of its four-hour Donchian Channel.
Large wallet transfer has not produced clear selling pressure
For now, Ethereum’s technical indicators do not show clear evidence that the movement of 133,298 ETH from the Lubin-linked wallet is translating into market selling.
The absence of a transfer to a known centralized exchange is central to that assessment. Moving ETH between addresses does not by itself establish an intention to sell, and the transaction has so far produced little immediate reaction in Ethereum’s price.
The receiving address remains worth monitoring because a subsequent movement toward centralized exchanges could alter the implications. At present, however, the available information supports only the conclusion that the tokens were transferred to a new address.
Ethereum meanwhile remains above $2,700, with positive daily capital flows and a directional advantage for buyers. The declining ADX indicates some loss of trend strength, while the modest positive ROC shows that short-term momentum has not yet accelerated enough to confirm another breakout.
The immediate technical test remains between approximately $2,749 and $2,800. Clearing that area sustainably could bring $2,900 into focus before the psychological $3,000 level. Failure to advance would return attention to $2,692, followed by the more important support around $2,636.
Until either side of that structure breaks, the large wallet movement remains a development to monitor rather than evidence of confirmed selling pressure.
