Bitcoin could extend toward $90,000 to $93,000 if U.S. Treasury yields decline and upcoming inflation data reinforces the weakness seen in September employment, according to Lacie Zhang, Research Lead at Bitget Wallet. Her outlook remains conditional, with sustained buying required before the recent relief from lower Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations can develop into a lasting advance.
Zhang said the probability of an October Fed rate increase had fallen to roughly 23% as of October 5, down from about 64% one week earlier. The repricing has supported Bitcoin, but repeated failures to remain above $87,000 indicate that sellers continue absorbing demand.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted about $2.65 billion during September, according to Zhang. However, she does not view ETF inflows or lower rate expectations alone as sufficient confirmation of a breakout. She identified a daily or weekly close above approximately $87,400 as an important technical requirement.
Bitcoin Needs Stronger Buying to Approach $93,000
Zhang’s upside scenario depends on a combination of easing financial conditions and stronger market demand. If Treasury yields continue falling and inflation readings support the weakness shown by September employment data, she believes Bitcoin could move toward $90,000 and potentially $93,000.
Those levels are not presented as unconditional October targets. Zhang specifically tied them to lower yields, supportive inflation data and enough buying pressure to overcome the supply that has repeatedly prevented Bitcoin from holding above $87,000.
For a more convincing breakout, she wants Bitcoin to reclaim roughly $87,400 on a daily or weekly closing basis. Continued ETF inflows and stronger spot purchases would also need to accompany that move.
Zhang described profit-taking and existing supply as the main forces currently absorbing institutional demand. Although investment products continue receiving money, Bitcoin’s inability to sustain trading above $87,000 suggests that those purchases have not yet overwhelmed sellers around recent highs.
Her next upside levels are $90,000 and $93,000. On the downside, she identifies support at $84,000 and then $82,000 if conditions deteriorate.
Weak Payroll Growth Changes October Fed Expectations
The sharp decline in expectations for an October rate increase followed weaker U.S. employment figures. Zhang cited September payroll growth of only 29,000 as a major reason the CME FedWatch probability fell to roughly 23% from about 64% a week earlier.
She said the repricing of Federal Reserve expectations had already provided a meaningful boost to Bitcoin.
An October 2 report covering the September payroll miss said economists had expected 90,000 additional jobs. Unemployment instead increased to 4.2% from 4.1%, while previous employment figures were also revised.
August payroll growth was revised to 133,000 from the initially reported 162,000, according to the same coverage.
Around the release of the September employment report, Bitcoin recovered from roughly $83,000 toward $86,000. That rebound brought the resistance area between $87,000 and $87,500 back into focus.
The change in rate expectations therefore provided relief, but the price response stopped short of establishing the breakout Zhang wants to see. Her analysis keeps the resistance area central to determining whether the recovery can extend toward the higher targets.
Treasury Yields Remain Critical to the Upside Scenario
Treasury yields are another major condition in Zhang’s outlook. An October 2 report recorded the 10-year Treasury yield moving above 5.34% on October 1 before easing toward 5.25%.
For Zhang, a further decline would improve the conditions for Bitcoin to advance, provided upcoming inflation figures reinforce the softer labor-market picture.
The employment data alone does not settle the interest-rate outlook. Zhang treats inflation as a separate test because stronger consumer or producer price readings could revive expectations for another increase even after weaker hiring reduced the perceived likelihood of immediate action in October.
That distinction is important to her $90,000 to $93,000 scenario. Lower rate-hike odds have already helped Bitcoin, but a sustained move requires the broader financial backdrop to remain supportive.
If yields ease further while inflation data confirms softer conditions, the combination could help buyers challenge resistance. If inflation instead comes in stronger and yields rise again, the recent repricing could reverse and weaken the case for higher Bitcoin prices.
ETF Inflows Support Bitcoin but Have Not Broken Resistance
Zhang estimated that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received approximately $2.65 billion during September. She also cited about $134 million of inflows across the first two trading sessions of October.
She described those subscriptions as supportive, while emphasizing that their scale has not yet been sufficient to force Bitcoin through resistance.
Earlier coverage from September 29 showed a similar divergence between fund inflows and Bitcoin’s price performance. Hilbert Group reported $2.39 billion in weekly crypto ETF inflows even as Bitcoin declined 4.3% to approximately $83,500.
In that report, Hilbert senior portfolio manager Jesse Marre said the 10-year Treasury yield had climbed from around 4.95% to 5.20%. He attributed pressure in the bond market to inflation concerns, an existing upward trend in yields and doubts surrounding government finances.
The combination showed that substantial fund inflows could coexist with price weakness when other market pressures remained present.
Zhang’s latest assessment follows the same distinction. ETF demand can provide support, but continued subscriptions do not automatically translate into enough spot buying to sustain a price breakout above resistance.
Major Bitcoin Funds Recorded Positive September Flows
The September 29 coverage also provided a breakdown of inflows into several U.S. Bitcoin investment products.
Citing Farside Investors data, it put inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT at approximately $1.16 billion between September 21 and September 25. Fidelity’s FBTC followed with $701.6 million, while ARK 21Shares’ ARKB received $294.7 million.
Across those five trading sessions, daily Bitcoin ETF inflows remained positive but slowed considerably as the week progressed.
The report said daily inflows fell from approximately $999 million on Monday to $134.5 million on Friday. Despite the slowdown, every session during the period still recorded positive flows.
These figures reinforce Zhang’s distinction between investment-product demand and a confirmed price breakout. Money continued entering the funds, but Bitcoin still struggled around the $87,000 area.
For her outlook, stronger purchases need to accompany a closing move above approximately $87,400. Without that combination, ETF demand remains supportive rather than decisive.
The market therefore continues to face a test between incoming institutional demand and the profit-taking and existing supply Zhang sees near recent highs.
Inflation Could Restore Expectations for Another Rate Hike
Zhang identified several risks that could undermine her upside scenario. Stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index or Producer Price Index readings could revive expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy.
She also highlighted renewed oil-driven inflation, hawkish Fed guidance and another increase in long-term Treasury yields.
Any of those developments could restore rate-hike expectations and push Bitcoin toward $84,000, according to Zhang. If that support fails, she identifies $82,000 as the next major level.
Her warning means the decline in October hike expectations is not treated as permanent. Weak employment has reduced the perceived likelihood of an immediate increase, but inflation data and Treasury yields can still change the market’s assessment.
A September 29 report on October rate-hike risk included a related warning from HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun.
Sun said another increase could lead investors to interpret September’s Fed decision as the beginning of repeated tightening rather than a single preventive move. That possibility would alter how markets view the broader policy cycle.
Treasury Yields, ETF Flows and Leverage Remain Key Factors
For U.S. investors holding Bitcoin directly or through spot funds, Sun identified long-term Treasury yields, ETF flows and derivatives leverage as the main factors to monitor.
He said sustained fund inflows could support Bitcoin’s price. At the same time, excessive borrowing in derivatives markets could increase risk if market conditions changed.
That framework overlaps with Zhang’s focus on yields and ETF demand while adding leverage as another element affecting market vulnerability.
The September 29 report also detailed the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision. The central bank raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16.
All 12 voting members supported the decision.
The Fed’s September projections placed the median year-end policy rate at 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June. Sixteen of 18 participants projected a policy rate above the current range.
Those projections provide context for why Zhang continues to treat another rate increase as a meaningful downside risk despite the sharp reduction in the probability assigned to an October move.
$87,400 Remains the Main Breakout Test
Bitcoin’s path toward $90,000 and $93,000 remains dependent on several conditions rather than a single catalyst in Zhang’s assessment.
The weaker September payroll report reduced October rate-hike expectations and helped Bitcoin recover from around $83,000 toward $86,000. ETF inflows have also remained supportive, with approximately $2.65 billion entering U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during September.
Yet the market has repeatedly failed to sustain trading above $87,000. Zhang sees profit-taking and existing supply absorbing incoming institutional demand, leaving approximately $87,400 as the level buyers need to reclaim on a daily or weekly closing basis.
A confirmed close above that area, accompanied by continued ETF inflows and stronger spot buying, would strengthen her case for a move toward $90,000 and then $93,000.
The opposite scenario remains tied to inflation, yields and Federal Reserve expectations. Stronger consumer or producer prices, oil-driven inflation, hawkish guidance or rising long-term yields could restore expectations for tighter policy and send Bitcoin toward $84,000, with $82,000 as the next major support.
For now, Zhang’s outlook remains conditional: weaker employment and lower October hike odds have improved the backdrop, but Bitcoin still needs lower yields, supportive inflation readings and stronger buying to turn that relief into a sustained price breakout.
