Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum after a volatile week that combined a failed U.S. crypto legislation vote with the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase since 2023. BTC traded near $76,236 at the time of writing after briefly falling toward $75,000, leaving the market caught between a major downside liquidity cluster around $74,600 and technical resistance near $78,600.
The cryptocurrency opened the session around $75,644, dropped to an intraday low of $75,065 and later recovered above $76,000. Even with that rebound, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 4% over the past seven days after failing to sustain an advance toward $80,000. The latest technical setup shows weakening daily capital flows, a bearish four-hour Supertrend signal and an RSI that remains below the neutral 50 level.
Bitcoin loses momentum after rejection near $80,000
The current decline developed after Bitcoin reached approximately $79,800 on Sept. 11. Sellers regained control before BTC could establish itself above $80,000, sending the price down to $74,944 on Sept. 15.
That sequence left a clear short-term rejection from the upper part of the recent range.
Bitcoin has since recovered from the lows, but the rebound has not been strong enough to reverse the pattern of lower highs that has developed since early September.
The immediate issue for buyers is not simply defending $75,000. They also need to recover the resistance levels that formed during the decline.
Failed CLARITY Act vote added pressure
Part of the weekly weakness followed the U.S. Senate’s failure to advance the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act.
The procedural measure received 50 votes in favor and 49 against but needed 60 votes to move forward.
The proposed legislation was intended to define how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission would divide oversight of digital assets.
Its failure reduced the possibility of Congress establishing a federal crypto market structure before the November midterm elections.
The vote was one of the major events traders had been watching during the week, and its conclusion removed one potential source of near-term regulatory momentum.
Federal Reserve rate increase added a macro headwind
Bitcoin then had to absorb another major event when the Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points on Sept. 16.
The move took the federal funds target to 3.75% to 4.00% and marked the first increase since 2023.
The decision had been widely expected, and Bitcoin reacted only briefly before remaining close to its four-week low.
Higher interest rates can increase the appeal of government debt while creating additional pressure on assets considered risk-sensitive or non-yielding.
They can also support the U.S. dollar, adding another potential challenge for crypto markets.
BTC remains below its 20-day moving average
The daily chart now places Bitcoin below its 20-day simple moving average at approximately $78,104.
That level has become one of the first technical thresholds bulls need to reclaim.
A move back above the 20-day SMA would suggest that buyers are beginning to regain short-term control after the recent pullback.
Until that happens, BTC remains positioned beneath a trend reference that sits close to the larger resistance zone highlighted on the four-hour chart.
The 20-day average therefore overlaps with the broader problem around $78,000.
Longer-term moving averages have not broken down
Despite the short-term weakness, Bitcoin remains above the other major daily moving averages shown in the source.
The 50-day SMA stands around $71,933.
The 200-day average is near $70,320, while the 100-day SMA sits around $67,639.
That positioning means the broader recovery from Bitcoin’s summer lows has not yet been invalidated.
BTC has weakened considerably from its recent attempt near $80,000, but it still trades above the major longer-term averages.
The danger would increase if the price loses $75,000 and begins moving toward the cluster between roughly $70,300 and $71,900.
CMF turns negative as capital flows weaken
The daily Chaikin Money Flow reading has fallen to -0.11.
This represents a notable deterioration after the indicator spent much of late August and early September above zero.
A negative CMF reading means selling pressure has exceeded buying pressure over the indicator’s 20-period calculation window.
The decline is particularly relevant because it occurred while Bitcoin was retreating from the $80,000 area.
If CMF returns above zero, it would indicate improving capital flows.
If the reading becomes more negative, it would add further weight to the bearish setup.
Supertrend flips bearish on the four-hour chart
The four-hour structure is also working against buyers.
The Supertrend indicator has moved above Bitcoin’s price and now marks resistance near $78,597.
When Supertrend sits above price, the immediate trend signal is bearish.
BTC also trades below the indicator’s previous support line near $76,648.
That gives bulls two stages to recover: first the former support near $76,650, then the heavier resistance between approximately $78,100 and $78,600.
A sustained move through $78,600 would invalidate the immediate bearish Supertrend signal.
RSI shows weak momentum without oversold conditions
The four-hour Relative Strength Index stands at 43.01.
Its signal average is slightly lower at 42.54.
The RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, confirming that bullish momentum is still weak.
At the same time, the indicator is not in oversold territory.
That distinction matters because Bitcoin still has room to fall before the RSI reaches levels normally associated with more extreme selling pressure.
The reading therefore does not provide a strong technical argument for an immediate rebound.
$75,000 remains the first major support test
The initial support area lies between approximately $75,000 and $75,500.
That range includes the Sept. 15 low and the floor of the recent four-hour trading range.
Bitcoin has already tested the area several times during the latest period of volatility.
As long as buyers continue defending it, the market can attempt additional rebounds toward $76,600 and higher.
A confirmed break below the zone, however, would expose the next major downside targets.
Liquidation heatmap points directly to $74,600
CoinGlass’s three-day liquidation heatmap identifies the largest nearby pool of leveraged positions between roughly $74,600 and $74,700.
The cluster sits immediately below the recent market low.
If Bitcoin loses $75,000, this liquidity concentration could become an important area to watch.
Liquidation heatmaps do not predict the direction of price.
They show where large groups of leveraged positions may be forced to close if the market reaches certain levels.
Those forced closures can increase volatility when price enters a dense liquidity area.
Liquidity also sits above the current market
The downside is not the only area containing leveraged positions.
CoinGlass also shows liquidity concentrations above Bitcoin’s current price.
The nearest bands appear around $76,600 to $76,900.
A larger cluster sits between approximately $77,500 and $77,800.
Additional concentrations are visible near $78,300 and $80,000.
If Bitcoin rebounds through the first overhead bands, short liquidations could accelerate the move toward the Supertrend resistance.
The market is therefore positioned between meaningful liquidity on both sides.
$74,600 to $78,600 defines the immediate battlefield
The combination of liquidation data and technical resistance creates a relatively clear short-term range.
On the downside, the key area sits around $74,600.
On the upside, the main technical barrier is near $78,600.
As long as Bitcoin remains between those levels, sharp reversals can continue because liquidity exists both above and below the market.
A clean move beyond either boundary would provide stronger evidence about the next directional phase.
Until then, BTC remains caught inside a volatile zone rather than establishing a new trend.
Daan Crypto Trades expects less event-driven noise
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin was positioned near its August lows and the four-hour 200-period moving averages after two major events dominated the previous week.
He argued that getting those events out of the way, regardless of their outcomes, could make the price action less choppy.
The comment reflects the unusually dense event calendar Bitcoin had to absorb.
The CLARITY Act vote and Federal Reserve decision both carried significant market attention.
With those events completed, traders may now focus more directly on price structure and liquidity levels.
$78,600 is the level bulls need to invalidate the bearish setup
A recovery through the four-hour Supertrend level would materially change the immediate technical picture.
Bitcoin would first need to reclaim the former support around $76,648.
It would then face the 20-day SMA near $78,104 before reaching approximately $78,600.
If BTC can sustain a move above that upper barrier, the bearish Supertrend signal would be invalidated.
That would also place the psychological $80,000 area back into focus.
Until then, the rejection from $79,800 remains technically relevant.
Failure at resistance would preserve the lower-high pattern
If Bitcoin rebounds but fails again below $78,600, the short-term chart would continue to show lower highs.
That structure has remained visible since early September.
Repeated inability to recover the same resistance area would keep sellers in control of the near-term trend.
The market would then remain vulnerable to another test of $75,000 and the liquidation concentration beneath it.
This is why a temporary bounce alone would not be enough to reverse the bearish setup.
$71,200 emerges as a deeper correction level
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified approximately $71,200 as another downside level based on Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price.
The metric represents the average acquisition price of coins held by newer investors.
During market corrections, such cost-basis levels can become important reference points.
The $71,200 area also sits close to Bitcoin’s daily moving-average cluster.
The 50-day SMA is near $71,933 and the 200-day average around $70,320.
That creates a broader technical region between approximately $70,300 and $71,900.
Bitcoin therefore has two bearish targets below $75,000
If $75,000 gives way, the first target identified by the current data is the liquidation cluster around $74,600.
A deeper move would bring the larger cost-basis and moving-average zone into focus.
That second area extends roughly from $70,300 to $71,900, with the short-term holder realized price near $71,200 sitting inside it.
These levels do not guarantee where Bitcoin will trade.
They identify the major zones already highlighted by liquidity data, moving averages and holder cost basis.
The broader recovery remains intact for now
The bearish short-term picture should be separated from the larger trend.
Bitcoin remains above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
That means the recovery from the summer lows has not yet been technically broken.
The current weakness instead represents a correction occurring within that broader structure.
A move below the lower major moving averages would create a more serious deterioration.
For now, the immediate question is whether $75,000 can continue acting as support.
Bitcoin needs a decisive move to leave the current range
BTC enters the next phase with relatively clear reference points.
The price is near $76,200 after recovering from approximately $75,000, but capital flows remain negative, RSI stays below 50 and Supertrend resistance stands around $78,600.
Below the market, the largest nearby liquidation cluster sits near $74,600.
Above it, multiple liquidity bands appear between $76,600 and $80,000.
The failure of the CLARITY Act vote and the Federal Reserve’s rate increase have already been absorbed into the week’s price action. Bitcoin now has to prove whether it can rebuild momentum without those events dominating every move.
A sustained break above $78,600 would weaken the bearish setup and reopen the route toward $80,000. A loss of $75,000 would instead place $74,600 in immediate focus, with the $70,300 to $71,900 region becoming increasingly important if selling pressure continues.
