Prices are seen at a gas station on Capitol Hill amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in Washington, D.C., United States, on March 19, 2026. Nathan Howard/Reuters
By experts and staff
PUBLISHED
March 20, 2026, 10:54 a.m.
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Welcome to Daily News Brief, CFR’s flagship morning newsletter summarizing the top global news and analysis of the day.
TOP OF THE AGENDA
The consequences of the Iran war for the world economy are in focus after a week of intensified attacks on energy infrastructure. The World Trade Organization said yesterday that if oil and gas prices remain high for the rest of the year, this could reduce the projected 2026 global GDP growth rate by 0.3%. As countries consider how to ease the energy shock, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday that Washington would consider removing sanctions on some Iranian oil, even as the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. attack jets and helicopters were targeting Iranian assets near the Strait of Hormuz. Seven U.S. allies pledged to help ensure safe passage through the strait, but they did not specify how they would do so.
Projections on the economic costs
Some regions of the world would be hit harder economically by a prolonged war, according to the WTO. The organization estimated that Europe, a major energy importer, could see GDP growth at least 1% lower than previously expected. A Goldman Sachs economist projected earlier this week that if the war continues through the end of April, it could shrink Kuwait and Qatar’s GDP by 14% this year, and Saudi Arabia’s and the United Arab Emirates’ by about 3% and 5%, respectively.
Those projections were made before an Iranian strike on a major gas facility in Qatar this week, which knocked out around 17% of the country’s liquefied natural gas export capacity, according to Qatar’s energy minister, speaking to Reuters.
Signals on the war’s duration
In separate comments yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the United States and Israel were achieving their battlefield goals. Both praised their attacks on Iran’s military infrastructure, while Netanyahu said Israel also seeks to create conditions inside Iran for a popular uprising. Iran’s leaders have pledged to keep fighting. Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on social media that any agreement to end the war must compensate Iran for the destruction of civilian sites.
“From a very purely, narrow, tactical military perspective, I would say the war has been very successful. The difficulty lies in trying to translate those very narrow tactical military gains into some larger strategic outcome. And it is far from clear that the administration has any roadmap for how to get from here to there.”
— CFR expert Max Boot, The President’s Inbox
ACROSS THE GLOBE
Takaichi’s White House visit
Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae exchanged praise during Takaichi’s first White House visit yesterday, although Trump criticized Japan earlier in the week for refusing to send military assets to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Takaichi told reporters that she had explained to Trump Japan’s constitutional limits on the use of force overseas. Japanese firms will invest up to $73 billion in U.S. nuclear and natural gas facilities as part of a trade and investment deal reached last year, the White House said.
U.S. arms sales to the Middle East
The State Department announced yesterday that it had approved more than $16 billion in potential arms sales to Jordan, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Citing emergency circumstances, the administration waived the normal requirement for congressional review. All three countries have been attacked by Iran this month in the context of the ongoing war.
Military planning over Greenland
In response to Trump’s repeated threats to acquire Greenland, Danish troops were deployed in January to the territory with blood supplies and explosives to destroy airport runways in the event of a U.S. invasion, Danish public broadcaster DR reported. The report cited unnamed Danish, French, and German officials. Tensions between the U.S. and Denmark have since eased and are being handled through negotiations.
Belarus prisoner release
Belarus agreed yesterday to free 250 political prisoners as part of a deal with the United States that would lift sanctions on three Belarusian companies that export a key fertilizer ingredient. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a global fertilizer supply crunch. The United States, which heavily sanctioned Belarus for supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, has increased diplomatic engagement with the country over the last two years.
UK foreign aid cuts
The UK government announced plans to cut the amount of direct foreign aid it provides to countries in the Middle East and Africa by more than 50% over a four-year period. The budget cuts are intended to offset an increase in military spending. The Center for Global Development said that the UK’s overall foreign aid cuts are now proportionally deeper than those in the United States.
Hungary and Slovakia block aid to Ukraine
At a European Council summit yesterday, Hungary and Slovakia blocked a loan of more than $100 billion for Ukraine. The two countries cited a dispute over a damaged Ukrainian pipeline that normally transports Russian oil to Central Europe — even though Ukraine said this week that it would repair the pipeline. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called Hungary’s opposition “a gross act of disloyalty.”
Thailand’s prime minister reelected
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, a conservative loyal to Thailand’s monarchy, was reelected by a wide margin yesterday. Anutin’s party gained parliamentary seats in last month’s snap election, which she called amid a border war with Cambodia and a rise in nationalist sentiment. She is the first prime minister to be reelected in twenty years.
Chad reinforcements in Haiti
Chad will send 800 members of its security forces to Haiti this year as part of an international mission to combat violence in the country, an unnamed Chadian police officer told Reuters. The UN Security Council approved the mission last year, although the full details of its composition have not yet been publicly confirmed. Some Kenyan officers from the current smaller Kenya-led mission in Haiti returned to Nairobi earlier this week.
