JPMorgan has maintained an Overweight rating on SpaceX and a $240 price target, implying roughly 75% upside from recent trading levels as the bank becomes more optimistic about the company’s artificial intelligence strategy.
SpaceX shares rose about 2% after the call and traded near $138 during Tuesday’s regular session, compared with a previous close of $135.
The bullish view is centered increasingly on Grok and the company’s recently completed acquisition of Anysphere, developer of the Cursor AI coding platform. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth said the bank has observed “tangible improvements” in recent Grok models after Cursor data was incorporated into supplemental training.
That makes the acquisition potentially more important than a conventional software purchase. SpaceX now has access not only to Cursor’s technology but also to a large enterprise customer base that could become a distribution channel for Grok.
JPMorgan Keeps Its $240 Target Despite Recent Volatility
The $240 price objective sits well above SpaceX’s recent trading level and also exceeds the stock’s post-IPO record high of $225.64.
JPMorgan’s stance implies that the bank expects SpaceX to recover all of its recent losses and move beyond its earlier peak.
The stock has been volatile since its June 12 Nasdaq debut under the SPCX ticker.
SpaceX sold 555.6 million Class A shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion and receiving an initial valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion.
After climbing to an intraday record of $225.64, the stock later fell below its IPO price and reached as low as $119.79 following seven consecutive losing sessions before recovering in August.
Cursor Is Becoming Central to the Grok Thesis
SpaceX completed its $60 billion stock-based acquisition of Anysphere on Aug. 14.
Anysphere, which develops Cursor, became a wholly owned subsidiary through a merger involving X67 Inc., an entity created specifically for the transaction.
An SEC filing showed that Cursor investors were entitled to receive approximately 389.3 million SpaceX Class A shares.
The scale of the acquisition shows that SpaceX views enterprise AI as a major strategic opportunity.
JPMorgan’s positive interpretation rests partly on early evidence that Cursor data has improved Grok’s performance.
Cursor Gives SpaceX Immediate Enterprise Distribution
Cursor already has more than 50,000 business customers.
Reports cited by JPMorgan indicate that nearly two-thirds of Fortune 500 companies use its products.
That customer base matters because it could give SpaceX a direct path into large enterprise accounts.
Rather than trying to sell Grok independently to every corporate customer, SpaceX can potentially introduce Grok services to companies that already use Cursor for software development.
That reduces distribution friction and could accelerate enterprise adoption.
Grok 4.6 Is Being Positioned for Business Workloads
SpaceX recently released Grok 4.6 for tasks including research, data analysis, software engineering and application development.
JPMorgan believes the model’s capabilities and lower pricing relative to some competing services could support adoption among business customers.
The investment bank sees enterprise monetization as an increasingly important part of SpaceX’s AI opportunity.
If businesses begin paying meaningfully for Grok tools, the AI segment could become a more visible revenue contributor alongside SpaceX’s space-launch and satellite-internet operations.
The Financial Benefits Are Still Unproven
The main limitation is that Cursor’s contribution has not yet appeared in SpaceX’s reported financial results.
The Anysphere acquisition closed after the second quarter ended.
That means investors will need future earnings reports to determine how much revenue, operating cost and potential margin contribution actually comes from Cursor.
For now, JPMorgan’s view remains forward-looking.
The early model-performance improvements are meaningful, but the commercial impact still needs to be demonstrated.
Bernstein Also Sees Grok as a Potential Wildcard
JPMorgan is not the only firm highlighting the AI opportunity.
Bernstein has described Grok as a possible “wildcard” for SpaceX.
The firm believes that the combination of Cursor and newer Grok models could strengthen the company’s AI services.
However, Bernstein’s view, like JPMorgan’s, remains an analyst assessment rather than a financial result already delivered by SpaceX.
The key test will be whether technical improvements turn into sustained enterprise revenue.
A Large Share Unlock Arrives in September
The bullish call comes just before another significant change in SpaceX’s public float.
JPMorgan estimates that about 370 million shares could become eligible for trading on Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
That could increase public float by approximately 20%.
Eligibility does not mean all of those shares will be sold.
Some holders may keep their positions.
Still, larger float can create additional supply pressure if insiders or early investors decide to sell.
August Unlocks Did Not Trigger the Feared Sell-Off
SpaceX has already gone through multiple lock-up expirations.
Around 319 million shares became eligible for trading on Aug. 20.
An earlier release on Aug. 6 covered as many as 911.5 million shares.
Despite concerns about heavy selling, the first major August expiration did not produce the feared collapse.
In the session after that event, SPCX rose 14.09% to $131.06 as lock-up concerns eased.
That experience does not guarantee the September event will be equally benign, but it shows that available shares do not automatically translate into immediate selling.
Analysts Remain Widely Divided on Valuation
JPMorgan’s $240 target is far from the only published estimate.
Argus has assigned a Buy rating with a $160 price target.
Oppenheimer has set a $190 target.
Morgan Stanley has maintained a $300 target and a $600 bull-case estimate following the Cursor transaction.
Morningstar, by contrast, estimated fair value at just $63 per share after the IPO.
The wide range highlights how difficult SpaceX is to value.
The company combines rocket launches, satellite internet and a rapidly expanding AI operation under one public equity.
Different assumptions about growth, profitability and capital intensity produce dramatically different outcomes.
Institutional Interest Has Grown Since the IPO
Institutional ownership has also expanded since SpaceX’s listing.
A U.S. regulatory filing showed that Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo held nearly 5.66 million SpaceX shares worth about $966 million as of June 30.
The position was reportedly the bank’s largest disclosed U.S. equity holding at the end of the second quarter.
That level of ownership shows that SpaceX has already attracted significant institutional attention despite the stock’s volatility.
Starlink Adds Another Growth Vector
The JPMorgan thesis is focused heavily on AI, but SpaceX continues to expand its satellite business as well.
Starlink recently submitted a new request to Indian regulators seeking approval to deploy its second-generation satellite constellation.
The proposed Gen 2 network includes direct-to-device functionality that would allow compatible mobile phones to connect directly with satellites without dedicated Starlink terminals.
Starlink already holds a telecom license in India but still requires approval from the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre.
The proposed satellites would operate in low Earth orbit at altitudes between approximately 340 and 615 kilometers.
SpaceX Now Has Multiple Independent Growth Engines
One reason valuation opinions vary so widely is that SpaceX is no longer just a launch company.
It now combines three major businesses.
Launch operations provide the company’s traditional industrial foundation.
Starlink represents a global connectivity platform.
Grok and Cursor introduce an enterprise AI business with potentially different economics and a very different customer base.
The interaction between these businesses could support a higher valuation if each develops independently while sharing capital, infrastructure and technical expertise.
The Main Risk Is Execution
The $240 target assumes that SpaceX can execute across all of these areas.
Cursor must contribute meaningful enterprise growth.
Grok must remain competitive.
Starlink must continue securing regulatory access and expanding capacity.
The core space business must continue operating efficiently.
At the same time, the company must absorb a $60 billion acquisition and manage dilution and share unlocks without creating excessive pressure on the stock.
Those requirements make JPMorgan’s upside case significant but demanding.
Conclusion
JPMorgan’s decision to retain a $240 SpaceX target reflects growing confidence in the company’s enterprise AI strategy after the acquisition of Anysphere.
The bank believes Cursor data is already improving Grok and that access to more than 50,000 business customers could help SpaceX monetize AI more effectively.
The stock still faces near-term risks from a large September share unlock and uncertain post-acquisition financial performance.
Final Takeaway
The most important part of JPMorgan’s bullish call is not simply the 75% upside target. It is the idea that SpaceX may be evolving from a space-and-satellite company into a broader technology platform with a meaningful enterprise AI business. If Cursor materially improves Grok and provides a durable distribution channel into corporate customers, the acquisition could justify a higher valuation. The next earnings reports will determine whether that thesis is turning into measurable financial results.
